IF Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested (for war crimes) by 2025, what country will he be arrested in?
IF Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested (for war crimes) by 2025, what country will he be arrested in?
Basic
1
Ṁ30Dec 31
8%
United States
17%
United Kingdom
17%
France
17%
Germany
21%
Poland
21%
Resolves N/A if Netanyahu is not arrested on the basis of the ICC warrant by the end of 2025, otherwise resolves to the country where the (first, if there are multiple) arrest happens.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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