Will Lex Fridman interview Connor Leahy for the Lex Fridman Podcast before the end of 2025?
Will Lex Fridman interview Connor Leahy for the Lex Fridman Podcast before the end of 2025?
Basic
11
Ṁ208Dec 31
46%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
There is an edge case here where Lex interviews Connor by the resolution date, but this hasn't become public knowledge. If I find out, through reliable public sources, that Lex has interviewed Connor for his podcast, then this market will resolve to Yes.
I'll try my best to resolve the market correctly.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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