Major semiconductor shipment from Taiwan to Tier-1 AI country fails delivery by end of 2026
Major semiconductor shipment from Taiwan to Tier-1 AI country fails delivery by end of 2026
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Resolves YES if there is a verified failure (valued >$2M) of a semiconductor shipment from Taiwan to a Tier-1 AI country (US, EU, Japan, South Korea), whether it be a delay, the chips being outright stolen or so on. Resolution based on shipping company reports, customs data, or credible news sources.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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