Will the US implement AI incident reporting requirements by 2028?
Will the US implement AI incident reporting requirements by 2028?
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This market will resolve to yes if the US establishes by 2028 a policy requiring certain kinds of AI incident reporting, similar to requirements in aviation or data breach reporting. The policy may allow for many incidents to be kept confidential within a regulatory body. The goal is to enable regulators to track specific types of harms and near-misses from AI systems, allowing them to identify dangers and quickly develop mitigation strategies.
Luke Muehlhauser from Open Philanthropy suggests this idea in his April 2023 post, "12 tentative ideas for US AI policy." This market idea was proposed by Michael Chen.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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