Will it be scientific consensus that there is currently microscopic life on Venus by the end of 2034?
Plus
18
Ṁ8902035
12%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question resolves YES if Wikipedia or similar mainstream sources of scientific information to a general audience say that there is currently microscopic life on Venus that is living independently of human support.
Fine print:
This will still resolve YES if the life is a result of human contamination. This is largely because I think there is a non-negligible probability that if we do discover life in this timeframe we will not be able to discern if it is from human contamination or not.
Human support means that the life's continued survival on venus requires in some way resources provided by humans; this does not need to have happened intentionally. So microbes surviving on a probe or remnants of a probe would not count, for example.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will it be scientific consensus that there is currently microscopic life on Mars by 2034?
16% chance
Will life be discovered on Venus by 2052?
14% chance
Will the Venus Life Finder enter Venus's atmosphere before 2026?
20% chance
In 2050, will scientific consensus be that the Viking probes DID detect life on Mars?
20% chance
Will there be >100 humans living on / in the atmosphere of Venus in 2063?
8% chance
Will there be scientific consensus of the existence of silicon based forms of extraterrestrial life by the end of 2060?
14% chance
By 2100, will there be scientific consensus of past or present life on Mars?
29% chance
Will a human walk on Venus before 2036?
5% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2030?
4% chance
By the start of 2033, will there be consensus that there has ever been life on Mars that was not brought there by humans?
7% chance