Will a AAA single-player game use artificial intelligence for real-time story generation by the beginning of 2035?
Will a AAA single-player game use artificial intelligence for real-time story generation by the beginning of 2035?
Plus
15
Ṁ6472035
90%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will a major single-player video game (with a revenue of at least 100 million 2023 dollars, indexed for inflation from the start of this resolution) use AI for on-the-fly story or NPC generation by the beginning of 2035? This explicitly excludes the use of basic localized chatbots that do not influence the state of the game beyond the immediate conversation.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
By 2029, will AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to today's Indie Games?
81% chance
By the end of 2025 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?
17% chance
Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2025?
17% chance
Will an AI be able to play a type of video game that it wasn't trained on before 2026?
33% chance
Will "On the fly modification and generation of in game environment during play using an AI system" be possible in 2025?
77% chance
Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2026?
49% chance
By the end of 2026 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?
32% chance
Will most digital entertainment be AI generated by 2032?
27% chance
By the end of 2024 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?
2% chance
High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2035?
66% chance