When will OpenAI announce o4?
➕
Plus
1
Ṁ705
2026
10%
Before March 2025
14%
Before April 2025
26%
Before May 2025
40%
Before June 2025
46%
Before July 2025
50%
Before August 2025
60%
Before September 2025
64%
Before October 2025
67%
Before November 2025
70%
Before December 2025

Minor changes to the name, such as using "o4-large-1125" instead of "o4", are acceptable when determining the announcement. Moreover, skipping some numbers (o5, o9) is similarly acceptable.

To count as announced, an official announcement, with information about the model's capabilities, must be made by OpenAI or an official partner of OpenAI. if it's banned in the US but releases in China this market would still resolve YES.

Note that the model being publicly available at a future date is not required. This market, had it been about o3, would have resolved YES "before January 2025".

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