Will the far-right politician Kickl become Austria's new chancellor by the end of March?
Will the far-right politician Kickl become Austria's new chancellor by the end of March?
Basic
6
Ṁ388Apr 1
7%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES as soon as Kickl, the leader of the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), is sworn in as Austria's new chancellor. Resolves NO if this does not happen by the end of March.
Background: The chancellor, Karl Nehammer, announced his intention to resign on Saturday after the talks broke down. He had repeated ruled out becoming junior partner to FPÖ with Kickl as the head of government.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will Herbert Kickl be the chancellor in the government after the next Austrian national elections?
26% chance
Will the Communist Party of Austria (KPÖ) win any seat in the parliament by the end of 2024?
3% chance
Who will be elected German Chancellor following the next general election?
NEXT PERSON TO BE ELECTED CHANCELLOR OF GERMANY?
Will Markus Söder ever be German chancellor?
16% chance
Will a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030?
9% chance
Will Olaf Scholz remain chancellor of Germany after the next federal election?
1% chance
Will Markus Söder head a ministry in the upcoming German government?
15% chance
Who will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?
Who will succeed Olaf Scholz as next Chancellor of Germany?