Will a new official mugshot of anybody in the Trump family (except Donald) be published before 2030?
Will a new official mugshot of anybody in the Trump family (except Donald) be published before 2030?
Basic
12
Ṁ402
2029
32%
no
1.8%
Melania Trump
8%
Donald Trump Jr.
1.8%
Ivanka Trump
15%
Eric Trump
1.8%
Tiffany Trump
16%
Barron Trump
17%
Jared Kushner
1.8%
Lara Yunaska
3%
Michael Boulos
1.8%
Maryanne Trump Barry
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules