In his 113 predictions article, Nate Silver gives this a 30% chance, calling the question “A bellwether for cultural vibes: SNL has already shifted from a Kamala Harris guest appearance to skewering MSNBC”.

That number seems high to me, since SNL and Trump have feuded a lot since he was elected. On the other hand, he hosted the show in 2015 and 2004, so the base rate is nonzero.

Resolves YES if the real Donald Trump (not just an impression or AI synthesis of him) appears in person on Saturday Night Live before Election Day 2028.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.