Will NATO article 5 (collective Defense) be instigated before the end of 2025?
Will NATO article 5 (collective Defense) be instigated before the end of 2025?
Plus
17
Ṁ31842026
8%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will the North Atlantic Counsel (NAC) decide before the end of 2025 that an attack on one of the NATO partners fulfilled the criteria to initiate Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty? This would mean that all NATO partners will have the obligation to collectively defend the attacked NATO partner.
Market will resolve yes if the NAC publicly states that the NATO will instigate article 5, regardless of actual action undertaken by NATO partners.
Market will resolve no if no statement has been made before the end of 2025.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will NATO still exist by the end of 2025?
95% chance
Will any NATO member country invoke Article 4 by the end of 2030?
50% chance
Will Article 4 of NATO be triggered before the end of 2026?
36% chance
Will Article 4 of NATO be triggered before the end of Trump's term?
44% chance
NATO member country directly engages in combat with Russian forces before April 1st 2025
2% chance
Will USA leave NATO by the end of 2025?
14% chance
Will Russia retaliate militarily on any non-participating member of NATO before the end of 2025?
6% chance
Will Trump withdraw from NATO in 2025?
13% chance
Mutual defence clause of NATO triggered before 2026
4% chance
NATO summit June 2025, what will happen ?