By 2026, will the majority of the USA flu vaccine supply be egg-free?
By 2026, will the majority of the USA flu vaccine supply be egg-free?
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Ṁ93Dec 31
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Currently, the US vaccine supply is 20% egg-free; cell-based (from cultured cells) and the recombinant influenza vaccine have been increasing in market share quickly. By the end of 2025, will at least 51% of the American flu vaccine supply be egg-free?
If available, I will use data from the CDC to resolve this market; because of this, market resolution may be delayed until data is published.
Close date updated to 2025-12-31 6:59 pm
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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