Climate change: In which month will the 30-year global warming trend first reach 1.38°C?
Climate change: In which month will the 30-year global warming trend first reach 1.38°C?
Basic
6
Ṁ348
Mar 28
27%
May 2025
10%
April 2025
10%
June 2025
9%
March 2025
8%
July 2025
6%
February 2025
6%
August 2025
5%
January 2025
5%
September 2025
3%
December 2024

This market predicts the month in which the 30-year global warming trend will first reach 1.38°C — or higher — above pre-industrial levels. The 30-year trend refers to the average global temperature increase calculated over a rolling 30-year period, compared to baseline temperatures recorded before industrialization (1850–1900).

The market will resolve based on data provided by Copernicus, the European Union’s Earth Observation Programme. The relevant data can be found on the website of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, specifically in the Global Warming chart located between the "News" and "Case Studies" sections. At the time of creation the latest data on the chart displayed 1.36°C for October 2024.

The resolution date is set to align with the next answer scheduled for resolution (currently December 2024). It will adjust dynamically to always reflect the next scheduled answer.

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