Will Père David's Deer (Elaphurus davidianus) become extinct in the current century?
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Père David's Deer, a.k.a. Milu or Elaphure, is a species of deer native to the subtropical river valleys of China. This market will resolve YES if Père David's Deer is extinct in 2100. It will resolve NO if it is not extinct in 2100. Extinction is defined as the death of the last individual.
Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P%C3%A8re_David%27s_deer
IUCN Red List of Threatened Species Assessment: Extinct in the Wild
https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/7121/22159785
Please help trading this market and posting news about the species in the comments, in order to get the most accurate assessment of its extinction risk.
For comparisons with other species, you can find here more markets about species extinction risks:
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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