Will the Eurasian Lynx (Lynx lynx) become extinct in the current century?
Will the Eurasian Lynx (Lynx lynx) become extinct in the current century?
Basic
3
Ṁ2502099
13%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The Eurasian Lynx is a medium-sized wild cat native to large parts of Europe and Asia. This market will resolve YES if the Eurasian Lynx is declared extinct by the IUCN by 2100 or earlier, and NO if it is not declared extinct by the IUCN in 2100.
Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_lynx
IUCN Red List of Threatened Species Assessment: Least Concern
https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/12519/121707666
Please help trading this market and posting news about the species in the comments, in order to get the most accurate assessment of its extinction risk.
For comparisons with other species, you can find here more markets about species extinction risks:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will the Lion (Panthera leo) become extinct in the current century?
18% chance
Will the European Wildcat (Felis silvestris) become extinct in the current century?
20% chance
Will the Wolf (Canis lupus) become extinct in the current century?
14% chance
Will the Tiger (Panthera tigris) become extinct in the current century?
21% chance
Will the African Wild Dog (Lycaon pictus) become extinct in the current century?
72% chance
Will the Jaguar (Panthera onca) become extinct in the current century?
33% chance
Will the Leopard (Panthera pardus) become extinct in the current century?
27% chance
Will the Snow Leopard (Panthera uncia) become extinct in the current century?
33% chance
Will the Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes) become extinct in the current century?
11% chance
Will the Asian Black Bear (Ursus thibetanus) become extinct in the current century?
23% chance