Will the Wolf (Canis lupus) become extinct in the current century?
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This market will resolve YES if the Wolf, also known as Grey Wolf, is extinct in 2100. It will resolve NO if it is not extinct in 2100. Note: This market is about the species Wolf, regardless of subspecies.
Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolf
IUCN red list of threatened species
https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/3746/247624660
Please help trading this market and posting news about the species in the comments, in order to get the most accurate assessment of its extinction risk.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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