Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2025? (Tests included)
Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2025? (Tests included)
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Countries currently known to have nuclear weapons are the United States, Russia, United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.
This includes wartime use, tests, peaceful use, etc. -- any detonation.
A nuclear detonation is a nuclear explosion in which the majority of the energy release comes from fission or fusion reactions rather than chemical reactions.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
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