Which year will the first nuclear power plant in Poland start producing power?
Which year will the first nuclear power plant in Poland start producing power?
Basic
27
Ṁ1811
2040
3%
2030 or earlier
0.6%
2031
0.7%
2032
9%
2033
15%
2034
20%
2035
7%
2036
3%
2037
1.4%
2038
1.4%
2039
1.4%
2040
36%
Will not happen by the end of 2040

Currently, one is planned to start building in 2026, and operation in 2033.

This will resolve to the first year in which a non-experimental, grid-scale reactor will be providing power (over 100 MWe) to the national grid for at least a week continuously.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules