Background The Panama Canal is a critical maritime route connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, handling about 5% of world maritime commerce. The United States transferred control of the canal to Panama in 1999 under the Torrijos-Carter Treaties. While there have been various diplomatic and economic discussions regarding the canal's operations, there is currently no indication of military tensions that would lead to its closure.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve based on the number of consecutive days the Panama Canal remains completely closed specifically due to military conflict during Donald Trump's presidency. The closure must be directly attributed to military actions, combat, or armed conflict, not due to other factors such as maintenance, strikes, or natural disasters.

For resolution:

• The count begins on the first full day of closure

• Partial closures or reduced operations do not count

• The closure must affect all transit routes through the canal

• Multiple separate closure periods will be cumulative

The market will resolve to the highest threshold reached. For example, if the canal is closed for 45 days, it would resolve YES to 1+, 7+ and 30+ but NO to 60+, etc.