Will the US be at war with Russia at any point until 2040?
Will the US be at war with Russia at any point until 2040?
Basic
4
Ṁ702040
19%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
There needs to be armed conflict, so stuff like cold war doesn't count.
US providing weapons to Ukraine (or any other country) but not operating them through its military also doesn't count.
In case of doubt, I'll ask random people within my social circle (not Americans and not Manifold users) whether the US is at war with Russia.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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1,0003.00What is this?
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Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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