Background

Michelle Bachelet, who served as President of Chile for two terms (2006-2010 and 2014-2018), has been the subject of speculation regarding a potential third presidential run in the 2025 elections. After completing her role as the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (2018-2022), Bachelet returned to Chile, reigniting discussions about her political future.

Recently, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva suggested that Bachelet consider running for president again. Despite this encouragement from a prominent regional leader, Bachelet has repeatedly stated that she does not intend to seek a third term. However, some sectors of the Chilean left continue to view her as a unifying figure who could potentially defeat right-wing candidates.

Bachelet remains well-regarded in public opinion polls, which has fueled ongoing speculation despite her public denials about running again.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve as YES if Michelle Bachelet officially announces her candidacy for the 2025 Chilean presidential election or if she formally registers as a candidate with the Chilean electoral authorities.

The market will resolve as NO if:

• Bachelet explicitly rules out running and maintains this position until the official candidate registration deadline passes

• The 2025 Chilean presidential election occurs without Bachelet as a registered candidate

• Bachelet endorses another candidate and confirms she will not run

If Bachelet participates in primary elections but does not advance to the general election, the market will still resolve as YES as she would have been a candidate in the electoral process.