Will any developed country establish a limit on compute for AI training by 2026?
Will any developed country establish a limit on compute for AI training by 2026?
Plus
8
Ṁ10272026
21%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Criteria for Resolution:
1. Developed Country:
- A country classified as "developed" by reputable international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, or United Nations.
2. Establishment of Limit:
- The government of the developed country must officially establish and enforce a limit on the computational resources (compute) that can be used for AI training. The limit must be at least nation-wide.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
China will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2025
7% chance
Limits on AI model size by 2026?
18% chance
Will there be a global "pause" on cutting-edge AI research due to government regulation by 2025?
1% chance
China will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2030
16% chance
Will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
14% chance
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)
23% chance
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries)
76% chance
Will the US regulate AI development by end of 2025?
34% chance
Will the US government enact legislation before 2026 that substantially slows US AI progress?
18% chance
Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?
21% chance