Will any MTG tournament have a prize of at least $200,000 to the winner before 2030?
Will any MTG tournament have a prize of at least $200,000 to the winner before 2030?
Basic
3
Ṁ2202030
30%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Just needs to be the officially announed prize; if the top 8 decides to split it so the winner gets less, that won't prevent the market from resolving to YES.
If this has already happened prior to market creation, that's not included. (Though I'd be curious to know what tournament it was.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will AI be superhuman at MTG rules by the end of 2030?
79% chance
Will a Magic the Gathering card sell for $5 Million USD or more before the end of 2027?
26% chance
Will any Magic card sell for at least $5 million before 2030?
28% chance
Who will win MTG Worlds 2025?
Will any new MTG judge promos come out by the end of 2025?
51% chance
Will there be at least 10 500+ player Competitive Magic tournaments in the United States in 2024?
90% chance
By the end of 2025, will players at Magic: The Gathering tournaments be allowed to use Manifold to bet on them?
10% chance
Will there be perfect MTG counterfeits before 2030?
55% chance
Will AI reach human-level performance in Magic: The Gathering before 2026?
21% chance
Will the Magic: The Gathering reserved list be removed or broken before 2030?
25% chance