Will the New Madrid fault produce a catastrophic earthquake in 2024?
Will the New Madrid fault produce a catastrophic earthquake in 2024?
Basic
3
Ṁ200Jan 1
10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution will depend on newsworthiness of event. Leading reports (of fissures, building collapse, etc.) on major media outlets will suffice to fulfill the condition, Richter Scale notwithstanding.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will there be an earthquake of magnitude >6.0 in the New Madrid Seismic Zone by the end of 2026?
14% chance
Will there be any catastrophic cascading natural disasters in 2023 or 2024?
3% chance
Will an earthquake over 6.4 magnitude happen before 2026 in the USA?
79% chance
Will a large earthquake rock a major city that isn't in a tectonically active area by end 2029?
40% chance
Where will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2025?
Will a major earthquake with a magnitude of 8.5 or greater occur in the Pacific Ring of Fire before the end of 2025?
9% chance
Will there be an earthquake causing at least 1 death in New Zealand by 2027?
20% chance
Will the Cascadia megaearthquake (magnitude 8.0 or above) in the Pacific NW happen by 2035?
20% chance
Will an earthquake 6.0 or greater with an epicenter within 50 miles of San Francisco occur by the end of 2024?
5% chance
Will the Mississippi River incur a catastrophic flood in the next three years?
55% chance