If Argentina successfully invades the Falkland Islands before 2040, will the UK regain control of them within a year?
If Argentina successfully invades the Falkland Islands before 2040, will the UK regain control of them within a year?
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Resolves YES on British media consensus that the UK retook the Falkland Islands within a year after Argentina mounted a successful invasion
Resolves NO on British media consensus that the UK did not retake the Falkland Islands within a year after Argentina mounted a successful invasion, regardless of whether the UK mounted any such attempt.
Resolves NA if neither of these are true by 2040, except in the case that Argentina successfully invaded in 2039, in which case the market will be extended until one year after Argentina took control of the islands (with a good faith attempt made by the market controller to determine an exact date)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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