Control over Crimea in 2035
Control over Crimea in 2035
Basic
11
Ṁ5422035
59%
Under Russian control
23%
Under Ukrainian control
1.7%
De facto self governing
2%
Under control of some other government
4%
Split between multiple governments
4%
In active armed conflict
6%
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Will Ukraine have full control over Crimea by the end of 2030?
17% chance
Will Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2030?
31% chance
Will Ukraine control any part of Crimea for at least a week before the end of 2025?
9% chance
Control over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2035
Will Ukraine have full control over Crimea by the end of 2026?
9% chance
Will Russia formally cede Crimea before 2030?
16% chance
Will Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2026?
19% chance
Will Russia control Pokrovsk by May 31st, 2025
45% chance
Will Russia control Kaliningrad on Jan 1st 2031?
86% chance
Who will control Kharkiv on December 31, 2025?