Will Catalonia hold another independence vote by 2030?
Will Catalonia hold another independence vote by 2030?
Basic
10
Ṁ4212030
27%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
For many years, Catalans have wanted to become an indepdenent nation and break off from Spain. On October 1, 2017, they tried to hold a binding vote to formally declare independence. It failed, as the central government in Madrid cracked down on the vote declaring it an illegal referendum, jailing its leaders and suspending its government.
Will Catalonia try to do the same thing again before 2030?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Will Catalonia (Catalunya) gain internationally recognized independence before 2030?
15% chance
Will Catalonia hold a referendum on independence from Spain before the end of 2029?
27% chance
Will Catalonia leave Spain before 2040?
25% chance
Will Catalunya leave Spain by 2040?
15% chance
Will Catalonia's self-exiled former president, Carles Puigdemont, return to Catalonia a free man before 2030?
96% chance
Will a referendum be held on Welsh independence from the United Kingdom before 2030?
4% chance
Will California, or any part of California, become an independent country before 2030?
4% chance
Will there be a Scottish independence referendum (indyref2) by 2030?
22% chance
Will there be another Scottish Independence referendum by 2026?
4% chance
Will California independence be voted on in 2026?
15% chance