Which of the following will have the highest market cap to finish calendar year 2025?
Which of the following will have the highest market cap to finish calendar year 2025?
Plus
4
Ṁ2142026
33%
AAPL stock ($3.64T as of 1/8/2025)
26%
Global Crypto Market ($3.53T as of 1/7/2025)
23%
NVDA stock ($3.51T as of 1/8/2025)
18%
MSFT stock ($3.17T as of 1/8/2025)
I intended last year to mix these entities against one another but found it had overlapped with another market.
The publicly traded company stocks will be finalized via the reported market cap on Fidelity following the close on the final trading day of 2025, and the crypto market cap will be finalized at the last reported market capitalization before 1/1/2026 on coinmarketcap. It will include the entire reported market capitalization with any added coins to this metric during calendar year 2025.
Open to suggestions if more accurate reporting is available.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
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