Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2025? ( >= week)
Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2025? ( >= week)
Plus
8
Ṁ865Dec 31
82%
Google
67%
xAI
59%
Antropic
56%
DeepSeek
54%
Meta
50%
Mistral
50%
Other
22%
NexusFlow
18%
Alibaba
For any company to resolve YES, they must achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI’s best model on the leaderboards https://lmarena.ai/.
see https://manifold.markets/Soli/which-companies-will-achieve-a-high?play=true for 2024
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
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