Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?
Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?
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20%
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1D
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Resolves YES if there is credible evidence (by OpenAI or others) that an actor external to OpenAI has succeeded in illicitly gaining access to GPT-4 weights. The evidence doesn't have to be 100% conclusive, but e.g. a rumor wouldn't count.
Resolves NO if there is no evidence that anyone has succeeded at stealing GPT-4 weights by the end of 2026.
Not sufficient to resolve YES::
If model weights are leaked by a disgruntled employee, but there is no reason to suspect coordinated action by any group.
Someone steals weights of a non-GPT-4 frontier model, or the weights of GPT-5
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
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Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
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