Will "The ‘strong’ feature hypothesis could be wrong" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Will "The ‘strong’ feature hypothesis could be wrong" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Plus
3
Ṁ6042026
42%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post The ‘strong’ feature hypothesis could be wrong is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will "Overview of strong human intelligence amplifi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
45% chance
Will "What Goes Without Saying" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
15% chance
Will "The Leopold Model: Analysis and Reactions" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "Brute Force Manufactured Consensus is Hiding ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
9% chance
Will "The Local Interaction Basis: Identifying Comp..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "On Not Pulling The Ladder Up Behind You" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
18% chance
Will "The case for ensuring that powerful AIs are c..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
88% chance
Will "Contra papers claiming superhuman AI forecasting" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
12% chance
Will "In favour of exploring nagging doubts about x..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
17% chance
Will "2023 Survey Results" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
2% chance