Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage
Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage
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22
Ṁ18k2028
85%
Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels)
82%
Task 1 will be achieved (understand a movie)
78%
Task 3 will be achieved (write biographies)
75%
Task 6 will be achieved (write 10k lines of code)
69%
Task 10 will be achieved (write formally verifiable proofs)
64%
Task 5 will be achieved (write legal briefs)
56%
Task 4 will be achieved (video gaming)
56%
Task 8 will be achieved (write Oscar level screenplays)
55%
Task 9 will be achieved (Nobel level science)
35%
Task 7 will be achieved (write Pulitzer calibre books)
31%
The bet will be annulled
27%
Miles will win the bet
10%
Miles will win the bet by the end of 2026
4%
Miles will win the bet by the end of 2025
Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage made a public bet about AI development. The terms of the bet are articulated in this substack post. https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-will-ai-be-at-the-end-of-2027
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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