Background
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 made significant changes to both individual and corporate taxation in the US. Key provisions included reducing individual tax rates, increasing the standard deduction, limiting SALT deductions, lowering the corporate tax rate to 21%, and changing international taxation rules. While some provisions (like the corporate tax rate) were permanent, many individual provisions are set to expire after 2025.
Resolution
This market resolves to the quarter when legislation meeting ALL these criteria is signed into law:
Extends or modifies at least 3 major TCJA provisions
Changes extend for at least 5 years
Scored by CBO/JCT showing multi-year impacts
Simple temporary patches (1-2 years) don't count
Must be signed by President
Resolves to "Not extended by 2026Q1" if no qualifying legislation is signed into law by March 31, 2026.
Examples of major provisions: individual tax rates, standard deduction, child tax credit, SALT cap, pass-through deduction (199A), corporate tax rate, international taxation rules (GILTI/FDII/BEAT).