If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?
If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?
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58
Ṁ63172028
95%
Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave
81%
Trump leaves office when his term ends
34%
Trump leaves office early (e.g. via impeachment or he dies)
32%
Trump attempts something arguably coup-like (e.g. J6), but it fails
31%
Trump supporters kill or hospitalise someone trying to prevent/protest him leaving
10%
Trump remains in office after his term is up
2%
Trump isn't elected (or fails to take office)
If Trump loses the 2024 election, or e.g. has a heart attack immediately after winning, "Trump isn't elected or fails to take office" resolves YES and all other options resolve NO.
If Trump is still in power in February 2029, even if it's temporary because of an emergency or something like that, "Trump remains in office after his term is up" resolves YES and "Trump leaves office when his term ends" resolves NO.
If Trump is replaced by a Republican who he has strong influence over, that still counts as leaving office, unless it's incredibly clear to international observers that it was a total sham election to appoint a puppet.
If there's substantial ambiguity around an option, it will resolve to a percentage based on my judgement.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
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