When will Republicans next win a 3/5ths supermajority in the US Senate
When will Republicans next win a 3/5ths supermajority in the US Senate
Basic
3
Ṁ1332037
5%
2024
6%
2026
6%
2028
6%
2030
6%
2032
6%
2034
57%
2036, or later or never
6%
This market resolves to the year that Republicans win at least 3/5ths of the seats in the US Senate. For the purposes of this market, senators who caucus with Republicans count as Republicans. Therefore, this market will not resolve until it is clear which senators are caucusing with which party.
The other category contains all non-election years in case the appointment or special election of a senator tips the balance.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
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