Will there be a huge increase in UK housebuilding before 2030? What is the political result at the next election?
Will there be a huge increase in UK housebuilding before 2030? What is the political result at the next election?
Basic
5
Ṁ5202030
60%
Labour Majority - Yes
32%
Labour Majority - No
3%
No Majority - Yes
2%
No Majority - No
1.2%
Conservative Majority - Yes
1.4%
Conservative Majority - No
350,000 net additional dwellings in any year between 2025 - 2029
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Will a new UK political party gain 50+ seats by the end of 2028? (In the house of commons)
17% chance
Will there be huge immigration reform in the UK before 2030? What is the political result of the 2024 election?
Will London build more than 60,000 houses a year on average between September 2022 and the next UK election?
4% chance
Will the UK build >1.5m new homes by the end of Q2 2029
38% chance
2x2: Will Labour get a majority, Will more than 200k houses be built per year, on average, in England and Wales?
Will there a major change in the election of MPs before 2030? What is the political result at the next election?
Conditional on Labour winning the next election, will English housing rents increase by more than 3% in 2025?
96% chance
Conditional on Tory government winning the next election, will English property rents increase by more than 3% in 2025?
68% chance
2x2: Will Labour get a majority, Will net migration be above 400k per year on average in the UK?
Will average wages rise faster than average house prices in the UK before the next general election?
41% chance