Which year will legal action first be taken against Manifold Markets by any governmental entity ?
Which year will legal action first be taken against Manifold Markets by any governmental entity ?
Basic
9
Ṁ8542027
1%
2024
27%
2025
13%
2026
24%
2027
36%
Legal action includes a government entity suing or fining Manifold.
At the start of each new year the previous year will resolve NO and a new option will be added to the market (market end date will also be pushed forward by one year).
When the first fine or legal proceeding happens all outstanding answers will resolve NO except for the current year which will resolve YES.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Will the Federal Government sue Manifold Markets in 2024?
2% chance
Will the CFTC file regulatory action against Manifold Markets for transactions involving the exchange of mana by 2030?
30% chance
Manifold.markets will be investigated by the FTC or SEC before EOY 2030
29% chance
Will the CFTC file regulatory action against Manifold because of sweepstakes before the end of 2025?
1% chance
Will the government come after Manifold for gambling on the site before 2026?
6% chance
Will A Class Action Lawsuit Be Filed Against Manifold or ManiPlay By End Of 2026?
33% chance
Will anyone file a lawsuit to insider trade on a Manifold market, by 2030?
28% chance
Will any Manifold market be presented as evidence in court in any felony case in the US before 2034?
9% chance
When will the CFTC take action against Polymarket?
When will manifold do/have done anything about market creators betting on their own markets?