Will Georgia be bluer than Pennsylvania in 2028?
Will Georgia be bluer than Pennsylvania in 2028?
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In 2028, will the Democratic margin in the presidential election be larger in Georgia than Pennsylvania? The Democratic margin is defined as the percentage of the vote won by the Democrat minus that won by the Republican. (It's negative when the Democrat loses).
In 2024 (as of current counts), the Democratic margin in PA was -1.7%, and in GA it was -2.2%, so PA was 0.5% bluer. Note that margins are based on percentage of the total vote share, not two-party vote share.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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