Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?
Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?
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On the Money Stuff column on 7th November, Matt Levine wrote:
“Design a product for retail investors who want to use prediction markets as a savings device” strikes me as a very good exercise for the reader, and I expect that within two years I will be writing about a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund.
Will this prediction come true?
Resolves Yes if Matt Levine talks about the existence of prediction market ETFs on Money Stuff, or an 'equivalent' outlet (eg. Money Stuff gets bought out from Bloomberg by another news organisation, or spins off into a separate blog/substack which is Matt Levine's primary outlet. Basically not if he tweets about it or mentions it off-hand in an interview or podcast or something), as one of the 'main stories' and not under 'Things happen' (or equivalent)
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Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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