Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
Resolves as true if such a system is created and publicly announced before July 1st 2026
Here are markets with the same criteria:
Will we get AGI before July 1st 2024?NO
Will we get AGI before July 1st 2025?6%
Will we get AGI before July 1st 2026?29% (this question)
Will we get AGI before July 1st 2027?35%
Will we get AGI before July 1st 2028?51%
Will we get AGI before July 1st 2029?59%
Will we get AGI before July 1st 2030?65%
Will we get AGI before July 1st 2031?70%
Yearwise markets:
Will we get AGI before 2024?NO
Will we get AGI before 2025?NO
Will we get AGI before 2026?15%
Will we get AGI before 2027?36%
Will we get AGI before 2028?45%
Will we get AGI before 2029?52%
Will we get AGI before 2030?61%
Will we get AGI before 2031?65%
Will we get AGI before 2032?71%
Will we get AGI before 2033?72%
Will we get AGI before 2034?74%
Will we get AGI before 2035?77%
Will we get AGI before 2036?78%
Will we get AGI before 2037?78%
Will we get AGI before 2038?79%
Will we get AGI before 2039?81%
Will we get AGI before 2040?81%
Will we get AGI before 2041?83%
Will we get AGI before 2042?82%
Will we get AGI before 2043?83%
Will we get AGI before 2044?84%
Will we get AGI before 2045?85%
Related markets:
Will we get ASI before 2028?27%
Will we get ASI before 2029?39%
Will we get ASI before 2030?50%
Will we get ASI before 2031?59%
Will we get ASI before 2032?57%
Will we get ASI before 2033?69%
Other questions:
Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?37%
Will we get AGI before Xi Jinping stops being the leader of China?40%
Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?33%
Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?75%
Image credits: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:AGI_circuit_board.png