Will we get AGI before July 1st 2026?
Will we get AGI before July 1st 2026?
➕
Plus
39
Ṁ2763
2026
29%
chance

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.

Resolves as true if such a system is created and publicly announced before July 1st 2026

Here are markets with the same criteria:

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2024?NO

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2025?6%

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2026?29% (this question)

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2027?35%

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2028?51%

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2029?59%

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2030?65%

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2031?70%

Yearwise markets:

Will we get AGI before 2024?NO

Will we get AGI before 2025?NO

Will we get AGI before 2026?15%

Will we get AGI before 2027?36%

Will we get AGI before 2028?45%

Will we get AGI before 2029?52%

Will we get AGI before 2030?61%

Will we get AGI before 2031?65%

Will we get AGI before 2032?71%

Will we get AGI before 2033?72%

Will we get AGI before 2034?74%

Will we get AGI before 2035?77%

Will we get AGI before 2036?78%

Will we get AGI before 2037?78%

Will we get AGI before 2038?79%

Will we get AGI before 2039?81%

Will we get AGI before 2040?81%

Will we get AGI before 2041?83%

Will we get AGI before 2042?82%

Will we get AGI before 2043?83%

Will we get AGI before 2044?84%

Will we get AGI before 2045?85%

Related markets:

Will we get ASI before 2028?27%

Will we get ASI before 2029?39%

Will we get ASI before 2030?50%

Will we get ASI before 2031?59%

Will we get ASI before 2032?57%

Will we get ASI before 2033?69%

Other questions:

Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?37%

Will we get AGI before Xi Jinping stops being the leader of China?40%

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?33%

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?75%

Image credits: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:AGI_circuit_board.png

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