Will the 2028 United States presidential election be free and fair, according to ≥75% of Manifold poll respondents?
Will the 2028 United States presidential election be free and fair, according to ≥75% of Manifold poll respondents?
➕
Plus
16
Ṁ6374
2029
86%
chance

Sometime between January 10, 2029 and January 31, 2029, in whatever timezone I'm in at the time, I will create a poll that ends seven days afterwards that asks the following question:

Was the 2028 United States presidential election free and fair?

with the answers:

  • Yes

  • No

  • See results

and the description:

Even if your answer is too nuanced for a full yes or no, you are encouraged to select the option that is closest to your opinion.

If (YES votes) / (YES votes + NO votes) ≥ 0.75, this market will resolve YES. Otherwise, this market will resolve NO.

If I become inactive/get banned/etc., I encourage a mod to make this poll so that this market can be resolved.

For reference, 12 respondents unanimously agreed that the 2024 election was free and fair.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


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opened a Ṁ500 YES at 76% order

Hopefully the current administration will successfully push for increased security measures (single day voting, ID, paper ballots only, timely vote counting in all states).

These may or may not increase the actual integrity of the election. But they will do wonders in terms of perception of integrity which is just us important.

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