Who will have the highest ranking model on web.lmarena.ai by EOY 2025?
Who will have the highest ranking model on web.lmarena.ai by EOY 2025?
Plus
3
Ṁ210Dec 31
17%
OpenAI
51%
Anthropic
17%
Google
16%
LMSYS released a new leaderboard for ranking ai-models based on their web dev skills. It is super fun to play around with. Give it a shot here.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Who will have the highest ranking model on web.lmarena.ai by March 2025?
Who will have the highest ranking model on web.lmarena.ai by end of June 2025?
Which company has best AI model end of April? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)
Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
Will China have a model in the top 10 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena on March 1, 2025?
98% chance
What will be true of the first model to cross 1400 on lmarena.ai?
Will a model get 1500 elo on lmarena (lmsys) before May 2025
21% chance
Will the top model by OpenAI rank 3rd (or lower) behind 2 other model families at any point before 2026?
41% chance
Will openAI have the most accurate LLM across most benchmarks by EOY 2024?
37% chance
Which company has the best AI model in the WebDev Arena in 2025?