Did Gemini 1.5 Pro achieve long-context reasoning through retrieval?
Did Gemini 1.5 Pro achieve long-context reasoning through retrieval?
Basic
1
Ṁ44Jan 1
50%
chance
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1W
1M
ALL
There is no way an attention network is that good.
1 hour video understanding
Needle in a Haystack 99% accuracy
Learning a language that no one speaks by reading a grammar book "in context"
Resolves YES if we later found out that the long context ability was enhanced by agents/retrieval/search/etc., i.e. it was not achieved merely by extending attention mechanism.
Resolves NA if I can't find out by EOY 2024
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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