Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?
➕
Plus
7
Ṁ533
2026
41%
chance

Predicting AI takeoff speed using Manifold consensus

Other prediction markets have taken a less scientific approach of predicting when AGI will be achieved, because they use arbitrary resolution criteria chosen by a single person rather than a community consensus.

Every month, a poll is posted asking whether Manifold users believe that weak AGI has been achieved. The poll does not define "artificial general intelligence," and only states that a "weak" system does not need to physically manipulate the world. At the time of market creation, one third of respondents believed that weak AGI existed, with the trendline projecting consensus that AGI exists in February 2025.

Beginning in September 2024, a second question, worded nearly identically to the first, will be posted, asking whether weak superintelligence has been achieved. The question will not define superintelligence, except again to state that the system need not be able to manipulate the physical world.

On the first month that the poll about "artificial general intelligence" has more YES respondents than NO respondents, a clock will begin ticking. If seven or more months elapse before the poll about "superintelligence" has more YES respondents than NO respondents, this question will resolve to NO. Otherwise, this question will resolve to YES.

This market will also resolve to YES if the poll involving superintelligence achieves a majority first in a contradiction.

RELATED:

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules