Will any U.S. State have more than 2,000,000 customers without power in 2025?
Will any U.S. State have more than 2,000,000 customers without power in 2025?
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37%
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I will attempt to check https://poweroutage.us/ at least once per day (or much more often) and this will resolve to Yes if any state has 2,000,000+ customers without power. I will be the sole person checking for resolution so it is possible that an extremely transient event will be missed. I will not resolve based on others noting in the comments that it has occurred but if I notice the comment I will check and resolve if the condition still exists. I will also see if following on FB or twitter helps and may enlist others in my circle to make it more likely I notice.
To clarify this will only apply to the 50 US States.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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