Will global temperatures exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2030?
Will global temperatures exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2030?
Basic
7
Ṁ1356
2030
90%
chance
  1. Current Temperature Rise:

    • As of 2023, global temperatures have already risen by approximately 1.1°C compared to pre-industrial levels, with significant warming trends observed.

  2. IPCC Projections:

    • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that if current trends continue, the 20-year average global temperature is expected to exceed 1.5°C in the early 2030s, regardless of emission reductions.

  3. Emissions Trajectory:

    • Current pledges under the Paris Agreement may still lead to a temperature rise of about 2.7°C by the end of the century, indicating that significant action is needed to prevent crossing critical thresholds.

  4. Impact of Exceeding 1.5°C:

    • Exceeding 1.5°C is associated with severe impacts, including increased frequency of extreme weather events, loss of biodiversity, and heightened risks of lethal heatwaves affecting human survival.

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