When will the Bir Tawil Triangle first be claimed by a legitimate country?
When will the Bir Tawil Triangle first be claimed by a legitimate country?
Basic
9
Ṁ3372028
4%
2024
4%
2025
4%
2026
4%
2027
82%
Not before 2028
Obviously when 2028 rolls around this resolves to "Not before 2028".
The Bir Tawil is an unclaimed area of land between Egypt and Sudan.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
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