Was there ever a memo of OpenAI leadership discussing selling to the Russian government to fund AI development?
Was there ever a memo of OpenAI leadership discussing selling to the Russian government to fund AI development?
Basic
5
Ṁ360
2035
22%
chance

Leopold Aschenbrenner, in his Dwarkesh Patel interview, mentioned the following:
> I've heard from multiple people — not from my time at OpenAI, and I haven't seen the memo — that at some point several years ago, OpenAI leadership had laid out a plan to fund and sell AGI by starting a bidding war between the governments of the United States, China, and Russia.

This resolves Yes if, before 2035, we get sufficient evidence corroborating the claim that at least two people in the OpenAI leadership discussed a plan involving selling to or raising funds from the Russian government, after 2014. For a Yes resolution, simply saying "we won't sell to the Russian government" is not enough; they need to discuss it without dismissing as unethical or bad in other ways.

The definition of "OpenAI leadership" is subjective, but generally involves executives and big team leads at the time, and people who had become executives no later than two years after when the discussion/memo happens. If it's fuzzy, I reserve the right to resolve a percentage.

Sufficient evidence: at least one person who participated in writing the document or in the conversation saying this publicly, or two people who saw the document or listened to the conversation.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules