I believe the current situation is: Japan can qualify on March 20 if they win or tie against Bahrein playing in Japan AND Saudi doesn't win its match on March 20 Then Japan would get at least 17 points and whoever is third place at most 7, with 3 games left so only 9 points in dispute, Japan would be for sure 1st or 2nd in their group and qualify directly. Japan would also qualify if they lose but both Saudi and Indonesia lose as well. Or if they win, and Saudi wins but Indonesia and Australia tie. I believe those are the three scenarios under which Japan qualifies March 20.

Any other scenario (for example the very likely Saudi playing at home beats China, and Australia playing at home beats Indonesia) and Japan cannot qualify on March 20. Then the first qualified team would come from OFC on March 21. It would be the winner of the playoff between New Caledonia, Tahiti, Fiji and New Zealand. They are playing in New Zealand and it would be the greatest offset if it is not New Zealand.

So it is between Japan, and those 4 countries in OFC, unless a match gets postponed.

Current situation in AFC Group C: