When will Cloud Gaming / Game Streaming overtake Traditional "Local" Console Gaming? 🎮🕹️👾🏆⚔️

Basic

Ṁ197

2037

18%

2025 to 2028

21%

2029 to 2032

27%

2033 to 2036

17%

After 2036

18%

Never

Traditional "local" Console gaming is defined as gaming on consoles and handheld devices where the game runs on the local hardware.

Cloud gaming defined as reliance on remote servers for game processing & streaming the video and audio to the player's device.

Examples of current Cloud Gaming providers:

Playstation Now, Microsoft's Xcloud, Amazon's Luna , Nvidia GeForce Now

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

A number of reputable research firms or Market Analysts will need to confirm Cloud Gaming Monthly Active Users (MAU) as higher than that of the MAU of Console Gaming.
- Presumably, Cloud Gaming services will also want to notify the public & gaming media if/when this occurs as companies like to draw attention to their successes & certain players (e.g. Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia) are public
I'm open to alternative measures (especially if quantitative & objective) if they can be justified as better aligned to the question at hand

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What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
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